BY KUNLE SOLAJA.
It is easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than for the Super Eagles to qualify for the World Cup 2026.
The moment Zimbabwe’s substitute player, Tawanda Chirewa, sneaked through a Nigerian defence trying to wind down the clock at the dot of regulation time, it was not just an equaliser for the Brave Warriors of Zimbabwe; it was the beginning of the end of Nigeria’s lean chances of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup.
After three home matches in the series, the Super Eagles could not pick a win. They have dropped six valuable points on home ground.
There are just two more home matches against Rwanda and Benin while the other two matches away will be contested in South Africa against the Bafana Bafana and also Lesotho who have adopted South Africa as their home ground.
On account of intense rivalry, it is unlikely that the Super Eagles will get breathing space on South African soil.
Even as the possibility exists that South Africa may suffer a three-point deduction over fielding an ineligible player in their Match Day 5 fixture, Nigeria will not be a direct beneficiary. South Africa will still retain the leadership of the group.
Rather, Nigeria will drop from the current fourth position to the fifth.
It will be an advantage to Lesotho who will benefit and limp from the fifth position to second as their point haul will rise to 9, just one behind the likely 10 that South Africa will have if three points are deducted.
With Nigeria finding it difficult to win at home, the possibility of beating Rwanda in the 31 August Match Day 7 fixture cannot be guaranteed. Rwanda had beaten Nigeria on home ground before, they will be ambitious to repeat the feat against a team with sagging hopes and epileptic form.
In a corresponding match, Lesotho may opt out of South Africa to prosecute their home fixture against Bafana Bafana as they are likely to be in contention for Group C leadership.
With just four matches to go and just 12 maximum points at stake, the possibility of getting a comfortable second position and qualifying for a tortious play-off looks remote.
Four best second-placed teams out of nine will go for a play-off that will produce a team for an Intercontinental play-off.
With the current trend, the likelihood of a Group C team qualifying for the play-off is very remote. After six match days, depending on where the pendulum of FIFA‘s decision swings in the South Africa – Lesotho match, the best a Group C second-placed team will have going into match day 7 will be nine points for Lesotho if points are deducted from South Africa. If not, it will be Rwanda with eight points.
Already, the second-placed team in Group F, Gabon is on 15 points. Groups B, D, G, H and I already have second-placed teams on 12 points. Only in Group E where Morocco will likely pick a World Cup ticket on Match Day 7, has a second-placed team, Niger Republic, with a lower point haul than its counterpart in Group C.
With epileptic form, the chances of Super Eagles are very slim. Flashback to the 2022 World Cup qualifiers, the 1-1 draw on Tuesday with Zimbabwe means that the Super Eagles have won just one World Cup qualifying duel in eight matches.
How the second-placed teams currently rank
Group A – Burkina Faso 11 points
Group B – Senegal – 12 points
Group C – Rwanda – 8 points (Lesotho potentially 9 pending FIFA’s decision)
Group D – Cameroon – 12 points
Group E – Niger – 6 points
Group F – Gabon 15 points
Group G – Mozambique – 12 points
Group H – Namibia – 12 points
Group I – Comoros Islands 12 points
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