- Manchester City are strong favourites to retain the title
- Liverpool could return to the top four
- Not all three promoted sides are predicted to get relegated
The powers of computational analysis have been significantly developed in the subsequent decades – although, a prediction in May would still be slightly more accurate.
While Pinto has ten months to mull over his best guess, less patient spectators can turn to Opta‘s fearsome supercomputer. The sports statistics giant has run 10,000 simulations of the entire fixture list for the coming campaign, where each team’s strength is calculated as a mix of betting market odds and a hierarchical Elo-based rating system.
After becoming the second English men’s side ever to win the European Treble, and just the tenth in history, Manchester City are unsurprisingly ranked as favourites to retain their domestic crown.
However, the crushing scale of their status as the team to beat is eye-catching. According to Opta’s calculations, City have a 90.2% chance of winning the Premier League. This comfortably makes the English top flight the most one-sided division among Europe’s elite.
For comparison, Bayern Munich have a 69.3% chance of winning a 12th consecutive Bundesliga crown, Paris Saint-Germain win Ligue 1 in 57.3% of Opta’s simulations while Real Madrid (48.4%) and Inter (43.6%) are marginal favourites in Spain and Italy respectively.
Arsenal may have led the Premier League for 248 days last season but only have a 4.1% chance of ending the final Sunday above City and everyone else in 2024. In fact, Arsenal are more than twice as likely to finish fifth (9.0%) as they are to top the table.
Liverpool (3.5%) and Manchester United (1.7%) are the only other clubs with more than a fractional chance of lifting the league title. Although, all of Newcastle United, Chelsea, Brighton, Tottenham Hotspur, Aston Villa and Brentford won the league in at least one of Opta’s 10,000 simulations.
Here’s how the 2023/24 Premier League season is expected to shake out.
| Predicted position | Team | Predicted points |
| 1 | Man City | 88.81 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 72.23 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 71.47 |
| 4 | Man Utd | 68.49 |
| 5 | Newcastle | 61.23 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 58.90 |
| 7 | Brighton | 57.51 |
| 8 | Tottenham | 56.20 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 55.38 |
| 10 | Brentford | 53.20 |
| 11 | West Ham | 51.45 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 47.40 |
| 13 | Fulham | 46.18 |
| 14 | Wolves | 43.45 |
| 15 | Burnley | 39.39 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 39.34 |
| 17 | Everton | 39.14 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 36.52 |
| 19 | Sheffield United | 36.26 |
| 20 | Luton Town | 34.19 |
Data via Opta, correct as of 8 August 2023
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